Leveraging Mental Models: Empowering Executives to Integrate Quantitative Risk Analysis into Strategic Decision-Making
A Workshop by Bill Raab (Senior Director - Enterprise Risk Mangement and Compliance, Huron)
About this Workshop
Executives must navigate complex risks with precision and agility. Traditional risk management often silos quantitative analysis from intuitive decision-making, leading to suboptimal outcomes. This session introduces mental models for risk managers and executives, inspired by thinkers like Charlie Munger and Daniel Kahneman, to help leaders seamlessly integrate probabilistic modeling, scenario analysis, and quantitative tools into their risk decisions.
Participants will explore key mental models such as pre-mortems, probabilistic thinking, inversion (considering what could go wrong first), second-order thinking (evaluating downstream effects), and Bayesian updating (refining probabilities with new data). Through real-world examples I’ll demonstrate how these models enhance executive judgment, turning risk data into actionable insights for capital allocation, strategic planning, and organizational resilience. Attendees will leave with an understanding about how to leverage mental models to enhance the use of quantitative data to make decisions that foster a risk-aware culture.